Yeah, right. But some analysts would have you think that, projecting there would cumulatively be 1.5 Home Media Servers (HMS) per home by 2010. Michael Greeson, CEO of home consultancy The Diffusion Group calls such analysis fluff.

The problem - forecasts that don't define the product being analyzed. Depending on your definition, a HMS could a Tivo on the Net or any PC with Microsoft XP Media Center software.

Closer to reality, Greeson writes:

According to TDG's latest consumer research, less than 10% of all broadband networked households have non-PC media devices such as TVs or stereos connected to their home network. Given that there are approximately 24 million US broadband households with a home network in use, that means that less than two million US households currently use anything even approximating a 'home media server' or 'home media network.

Trends in hardware miniaturization (driven primarily by innovations in silicon) and advances in software have facilitated a level of 'converged' functionality that is absolutely mind-boggling: for example, devices as small as mobile phones can now support the same applications once enabled by personal computers of the 1990s. With these trends expected to become more pronounced in the next few years, the lines between products and categories will only become further blurred.

In this age of convergence and miniaturization, how will we organize consumer technology products? Will they evolve from being defined by the applications they enable to being characterized by the way in which they are actually used? Will product categories void of usage metrics become meaningless? I would argue that usage must become the measure by which such platforms are defined or organized - if not, then almost any digital or IP-based platform with a hard drive is in theory capable of being a home media server.

When this happens, you end up with overly optimistic forecasts describing products that, while capable of a robust set of features, will never in their lifetime be used. You end up with misguided product designs and marketing strategies that don't speak to real consumer needs but to those imagined by engineers.

Disclaimer: I consult with The Diffusion Group.