CD & DVDs Will (Sort Of) Survive

Filed in archive Commentary , Society & Public Policy on October 18, 2006

Business 2.0 came out with "DVDs: They will survive." It is a PR piece in disguise for the Sonic Solutions and Macrovision deal it covers. There is no mention about all the problems and consumer rejection of DRM, and that a prime reason for long DVD life is the slow development of authorized digital services due to glacial licensing by the entertainment industry.

Writer Chris Taylor writes there is no way to burn a digital download to DVD. Wrong. Check out CinemaNow.

The article certainly is right in that the huge amount of data, especially with HD DVD, will make a digital download of comparable resolution take too long for most consumers. I've covered that in previous commentary.

Taylor writes about DVDs, "Bottom line: contrary to popular perception, they're not going the way of the 8-track and the audio cassette." Wrong again.

Other media formats were supplanted by newer media. The same WILL happen with DVDs. Now the discs may look the same and old DVD discs may be able to be read by next generation players. But DVDs will become dinosaurs. Whether it's HD DVD, BluRay, or a newer format, the DVDs and players of today WILL eventually replaced. The huge number of players, over 1 billion, means it will take a long time to upgrade or convert the large installed base. But long means only 10-15 years.