I read dylan Tweney's comments on The Long Tail. The hype over the Tail, which is now a book, is little different from that during the meteoric days of the Net several years ago. Yes, the web has brought publishing within reach of the average person. Today you can even charge for it. But capability does not make a business.

We've seen this with digital music. Artists have had web sites and been selling their own music for years. That doesn't make them successful commercial bands. There continues to be huge core value in the record labels in sourcing talent, management, licensing, promotion, marketing, and merchandising. While the industry is stagnating and slowly restructuring, it's not because the long tail is changing industry dynamics.

Certainly there will be opportunities. Large marketers like Ebay and Amazon will profit by aggregating buyer or sellers and providing a publishing and business platform. There will be the occasional shooting star, whether it's a YouTube site or occasional artist, writer, or Net celebrity. But it rarely results in a person earning a living.

What the long tail does though is open possibilities. We write, draw, act, and make music because that's what we do. With or without the Internet. We humiliate ourselves just to be on American Idol, share our music over P2P, or invite friends to see our video mashup on YouTube. The long tail only means we MIGHT be a star. For most people that's enough. Just to have a chance to be famous and live the American dream.